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September 21st, 2020

Chadd Mason, CEO The Cabana Group

A Necessary Dose of Reality

Equity markets resumed selling after the Federal Reserve meeting last Wednesday. The 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 was promptly broken, and closed well beneath that important technical average on Friday. It appears that investors are finally concluding that the only way out of the economic hole we are in will be a tough climb.

While I don’t expect to see the lows we saw this spring, I do think (and have pointed out) there have been many warning signs that the pace of the equity market’s advance is unsustainable. We have discussed the lack of participation in the rally by important sectors such as finance, manufacturing, and industrials. Energy remains mired in a world of pain. These are not good signs when trying to support an argument for rapid growth on the horizon. The simple fact is that reality does not support all-time highs in the stock market. The disconnect between Wall Street (the haves) and “Main Street” (the have nots) is profound. Eventually that imbalance is going to show up in equity prices. On top of what I’ve described here, we are facing a traditionally difficult and volatile season for stocks, coupled with a presidential election like no other in our lifetimes. Oh, and let us not forget that little thing called the Coronavirus.

Investors have needed a dose a reality for some time now. I expect this pullback to continue and for the 200-day moving average to be tested at 3100 (S&P 500). At this writing, the major indexes have given up between 8% and 11% of their recent gains. The S&P 500 is now flat for the year and the Dow is back under water. The Nasdaq remains positive on the back of continued outperformance by big tech.

At Cabana, we are in the process of reallocating to remove risk from our portfolios, consistent with what we are seeing in the markets, as well as CARA’s signal. We are moving from our Transitional Bullish/Bullish Scene to our Cautiously Bullish Scene.

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This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.

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The Financial Advisor Magazine 2019 Top 50 Fastest-Growing Firms ranking is not indicative of Cabana’s future performance and may not be representative of actual client experiences. Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor Magazine. Working with a highly-rated advisor also does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance. These ratings should not be viewed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client and do not represent any specific client’s evaluation. RIAs were based on number of clients in 2018, percentage growth in total percentage assets under management from year end 2017 to 2018, and growth in percentage growth in assets per client during the same time period.  Visit www.fa-mag.com for more information regarding the ranking.

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