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August 18th, 2020

Chadd Mason, CEO The Cabana Group

There are Many Unknowns, but the Market Continues to March On
The S&P 500 and the Dow continue their respective attempts to break through the all-time highs established in February. Both major indices have been trading in a tight range just below those levels for the better part of the last two weeks. The tech-focused Nasdaq has already done so and has set numerous records over the summer. Small- and mid-caps have lagged shares of larger companies throughout the bounce off market lows, which began on March 23. The same can be said of energy, financials, and industrials. Real estate has faced significant headwinds due to expected foreclosures, despite favorable interest rates. If your tenants can’t pay their rent it doesn’t matter how great a deal you have on the financing side of your business. Not surprisingly, healthcare, consumer goods and technology remain sector leaders within the S&P 500.

Last week saw some profit taking in bonds, gold, and dividend payers. These assets have outperformed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the current retracement back to pre-COVID highs is a good place to reassess. The longer we can hold here without a pronounced sell off, the more likely we are for another leg up in stocks.

Make no mistake, there are many, many unknowns that investors seem to be discounting to the upside. Any number of things could occur that would result in a swift reality check and concurrent drop in prices. To me, it feels like we are in a holding pattern. Look for an end-of-week close above 3400 on the S&P and some leadership in financials for evidence that the next move up has begun. On the downside, we have room all the way down to 3200 before the current uptrend would be in jeopardy.

At Cabana, we remain in our Bullish/Transitional Bullish Scene.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.

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The Financial Advisor Magazine 2019 Top 50 Fastest-Growing Firms ranking is not indicative of Cabana’s future performance and may not be representative of actual client experiences. Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor Magazine. Working with a highly-rated advisor also does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance. These ratings should not be viewed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client and do not represent any specific client’s evaluation. RIAs were based on number of clients in 2018, percentage growth in total percentage assets under management from year end 2017 to 2018, and growth in percentage growth in assets per client during the same time period.  Visit www.fa-mag.com for more information regarding the ranking.

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